There are many ways to analyze basketball totals. One method I look at is trying to anticipate what the pace of the game might be. The Houston Rockets, for instance, like to play the games at a slow pace. That’s because head coach Jeff Van Gundy loves to emphasize defense every game. When he was coach of the Knicks they were one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, one that didn’t mind winning a game 84-81. 축구중계
Now that he is coach of the Rockets, that strategy came with him. The Rockets are second in the NBA in points allowed and first in field goal shooting defense. When they play a team like San Antonio, you can anticipate a slow-paced game with rugged defense and no easy shots.
But an angle within this angle that is even more important is how the team is doing LATELY. That’s more important than season averages. Memphis, for instance, became a wide-open, running offense in midseason when a new coach took over. The Clippers are suddenly struggling to score points and that’s tied into the fact that starting point guard Shaun Livingston is out for the year (knee injury) and Sam Cassell isn’t playing much with some nagging injuries.
Let’s examine a game I gave out this week when Philadelphia played at Atlanta. If you look at the overall stats of the season, you see a pair of lousy offensive teams. The 76ers average 95 ppg, sixth-worst in the NBA, while the Hawks are dead last at 93 ppg. Based on that, you might expect a low scoring game and a low total by oddsmakers.
However, take a look at how those teams have played lately: Atlanta is on an 8-3 run over the total, while Philadelphia has scored 99 or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Their offenses are gaining more cohesion and confidence. Atlanta has scored 100, 106, 99 and 104 points the last four games. The 76ers struggled offensively after trading star Allen Iverson, which was to be expected. But that was several months ago, meaning that the other players on the team have had to learn to pick up the slack, distribute the ball, and look for the new go-to guy(s). So what happened? The total was set low by oddsmakers at 185. Yet, Atlanta shot over 49% and finished with 104 points. The teams combined for 196 points, more than 10 points higher than the total for an easy over.
Just as revealing in the box score was the balanced scoring. You never thought about balanced scoring when Iverson was on the 76ers, yet they had 5 guys in double digits that game. Other factors with respect to totals are: Are any teams playing with no rest? Is this a team’s third game in four nights? Players that are not rested means the first thing to go are their legs. Tired teams are less likely to have the energy to play good defense. Also, examine balanced scoring and potential mismatches, like a good backcourt going against a team that has poor defensive guards.